Hello Everyone, Guesstimate Questions have become the standard in most interview formats and there is invariably a Guesstimate round in any of the Consulting interview. Off late, even companies from other domains and those that are into …
Hello Everyone,
Guesstimate Questions have become the standard in most interview formats and there is invariably a Guesstimate round in any of the Consulting interview.
Off late, even companies from other domains and those that are into research which involves analyses have started using guesstimation to test the candidate's ability. eg Grail Research
I searched on PG and couldn't find a Guesstimate thread so I thought of starting one here and stimulate our brains for some appetising guesstimate questions.
A typical guesstimates questions......well...there isn't any typical guesstimate question. That's the beauty of it. You can have guesstimates from any corner of the universe.
A few examples:
1) Estimate the sales of Maruti Swift Dzire in 2012-13.
2) Estimate the number of trees in your colony/city/particular area etc.
3) If you had to move a typical mountain 10 miles further, and you have only one standard earth mover, how much time would you take?
To answer these question, there is no particular way an no one correct answer. The focus is on the METHOD you are using to solve the question and the interviewer would be interested more on the method and less about the answer you arrive at.
You can check this link to get some more idea: Estimation Question
The way I prefer to go about having discussions here is, we put up a Guesstimate question, if possible its source and discuss the same. We can argue about the merits in each answer and the methodology and seniors who have cleared such interviews and those who are doing consulting can put their two cents.
Some more:
1) Estimate the no. of nano cars that TATA expects to sell?[ question was asked before nano was released]
2) How much $$ should be put into an ATM so that it lasts for at least a week?
3) How much petrol does a petrol pump expect to sell in a day?
4) How much paint does one need to paint a Boeing 747?
5) A new mall is coming up in your society. What should be the parking space for such a mall?
It is nice to have a thread for such questions, (Guesstimate Questions)
I find these questions really challenging. I believe while solving such questions it is the approach that is really important. How we are starting makes a huge difference.
Hello Guys,
I am sorry to reply so late.
I'll proceed with the 3rd Question I posted: If you had to move a typical mountain 10 miles/kms further, and you have only one standard earth mover, how much time would you take?
Okay, so here are my assumptions. In the brackets I write my basis of estimation to explain to the interviewer in case needed.
1. A typical mountain is 5000 metres tall. (8848 m is the height of Mt. Everest. So, I have assumed that a typical mountain would be about 3500 m shorter)
2. Standard Earth Mover's dimensions: 8 x 3 x 2 = 48 cubic metres (approx 50)
3. Avg speed of Earth mover: 50 km/hr (when empty) 30 km/hr (when full)
A mountain can be approximated to have a conical shape. I assume that the edge is at a standard angle of 45 degrees which means by trigonometry, my radius is 5000 m as well. Therefore, Volume = 1/3 * 3.14 * (5000^2)*5000 = 130,000,000,000 cubic metres.
It would require: 26,000,000,000 truckloads full.
One truckload takes 20 mins to load, 20 mins to travel to the site, 10 mins to unload and then 12 mins to come back = 60 mins approx
Time: 26,000,000,000 Hours
Guys I think this is an excellent thread, lets discus the solutions to these questions and then put up further questions.
here's my solution to the first question, please give yours:
Estimate the sales of Maruti Swift Dzire in 2012-13.
It is important to segment the market at first, let us assume that 15 percent of the population can afford a car in the price range of swift dzire i.e. approximately nearly 20 crore.
As per the Indian mindset, many might think of a car as a deprecating asset, let us assume that 10% of this figure are willing to invest in a car.
This gives us a figure of approx 2 crore.
Moreover, with the economic slowdown and fear of recession looming, a major chunk would not invest in a car. Let us assume that 12% will invest in a car i.e. 24 lac.
Now, consider the other cars in the same price range or sedan look. These include fiat linea, ford fiesta, skoda fabia etc. Some buyers would prefer a brand like skoda over maruti, while some might opt for maruti considering its high mileage, some might choose fiesta or other cars for other reasons. Also taking into account the rising fuel(both petrol and diesel) prices, more people will prefer maruti dzire over it's competitors. Let us assume this figure to be nearly 8% i.e. approx 1.9 lac.
Kindly comment on this solution and post some other solution as well.
Seniors please reply!!
I have serious problems with your assumptions. 15% is too high a number to begin with. And, pls provide the basis for your assumptions. Only 3% people in our country pay Income Taxes, even if you consider another 3% which is a full 100% more people evading taxes, we would still have just 6% people who have annual incomes above about 2 lakhs.
A better way to approach is to first see how many cars do we have at present which is a big estimate in itself.
If you can get this correct, you can estimate the growth of this market.
Then, you can see where this growth would come from by segmenting.
After this you would arrive at a reasonable estimate.
Yet another possible way to estimate the sale of Diesel versions would be estimate it from supply side as there is a good 2-3 months waiting for Swift Dzire Diesel. Lower the estimate for Petrol version, split the two in terms of percentages and arrive at the final estimate.
Bumping...
Nice thread!
Guesstimates do form an important part of our career these days whether it be interviews or on-job activities!
Moved it to Career Discussion Section from Chit-Chat!
Time to participate in questions now :mg:
Cheers!
Question 1. ) How much Rs. should be put into an ATM so that it lasts for at least a week?
Answer ) We are picking an ATM from one of the busiest locations in New Delhi - CP. Now the first estimate is that ATM is open for 24 hours a day and 7 days a week.
Now we divide entire day into 3 blocks as per the number of visitors visiting the ATM. FIrst we are thinking about visitors only. Now
Block 1 - 1 visitor every 2 minute for 10 hrs = 300 visitors
Block 2 - 1 visitor every 5 minute for 6 hrs = 72 visitors
Block 3 - 1 visitor every 10 minutes 8 hrs = 48 visitors
therefore total footfall is of 420 visitors
Now say 20% of these are there just for balance enquiry or there account has insufficient balance so no money is dispensed therefore 420 - 84 = 336 visitors
Now think on an average every person withdraws 1000Rs.
therefore total amount withdrawn in entire day will be 336*1000 = 336000Rs.
Now bank can insert either 3360 notes of 100 each
672 notes of 500 each
336 notes of 1000 each
Note : - again this is just an approach. You can play with numbers if you wish
Hi pawanponting,
You have taken the third case where 1 visitor visits every 10 minutes for 8 hours. I suppose this is the frequency taken for night hours.
It seems highly unlikely that during night, the ATM would witness such a great frequency. If you taken the case of CP, you must take into consideration the opening and closing hours of shops as most of the people would come then only.
Thanks
A question i had in my job interview:
Suppose u have a client and he is in bat making business. He wants to estimate the size of industry or business that he can get....
Answere with approach and assume the country to be India :)
@pawanponting said: Question 1. ) How much Rs. should be put into an ATM so that it lasts for at least a week? Answer ) We are picking an ATM from one of the busiest locations in New Delhi - CP. Now the first estimate is that ATM is open for 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. Now we divide entire day into 3 blocks as per the number of visitors visiting the ATM. FIrst we are thinking about visitors only. NowBlock 1 - 1 visitor every 2 minute for 10 hrs = 300 visitors Block 2 - 1 visitor every 5 minute for 6 hrs = 72 visitors Block 3 - 1 visitor every 10 minutes 8 hrs = 48 visitors therefore total footfall is of 420 visitorsNow say 20% of these are there just for balance enquiry or there account has insufficient balance so no money is dispensed therefore 420 - 84 = 336 visitorsNow think on an average every person withdraws 1000Rs. therefore total amount withdrawn in entire day will be 336*1000 = 336000Rs.Now bank can insert either 3360 notes of 100 each 672 notes of 500 each 336 notes of 1000 eachNote : - again this is just an approach. You can play with numbers if you wish
I have written below the way I attempted the question without reading pawanponting's solution.
I take the example of an ATM in a big mall like great India Place, Noida. The number of footfalls in the entire day has been estimated to be 10,000 on Weekdays and 15,000 on weekends.
Say, only 20% of people actually buy stuff and rest are either tag-alongs or window-shopeers or didn't find what they were looking for. 2000
Out of them only about 10% people would need extra cash which would require the to use an ATM. This leaves us with 200 people. This would also include people who did not have a pre-planned agenda and therefore, did not have money in advance.
If there are six ATMs in the building, with preference of ATMs related to the banks, only 16.66% people out of 200 would use our particular ATM.
So, only 33 people would use that ATM. Assuming an average transaction of Rs. 3000 considering that items in malls are costly and people would be carrying cash upto Rs. 1000.
This adds upto to approx 5 lakh rupees for five days.
For weekends, this comes out to be 3 lakh rupees for the weekend.
This brings the total upto: 8 lakh rupees.
Question ) Suppose u have a client and he is in bat making business. He wants to estimate the size of industry or business that he can get.... ?
Answer ) To consider this industry following approach comes to my mind:
If we talk about PAN India then total population of India is say 120 crore.
we will divide India into 4 Zones
North = Population of 20 crores
say 0.10% plays cricket which includes all type of cricket means pro and for fun and of all age categories.
therefore total cricket playing population = 2,00,000
Say on an average every person has .5 bats
therefore total bats = 1,00,000
East = Population of 40 crores
Say 0.05% plays cricket
therefore total cricket playing population = 2,00,000
Say on an average every person has .25 bats
therefor total bats = 50,000
West = Population of 30 crores
0.15% plays cricket
therefore total cricket playing population = 4,50,000
Say on an average every person has .5 bats
therefore total bats = 2,25,000
South = Population of 30 crores
0.10% plays cricket
therefore total cricket playing population = 300000
Say on an average every person has .5 bats
therefore total bats = 1,50,000
total bats to be manufactured in India in 2012 = 5,25,000
Say average price of bat in India = Rs. 1500
Therefore total Industry = Rs. 787500000
Question: ) Estimate the sales of Maruti Swift Dzire in 2012-13.
Answer :- ) Total population of India = 120 crore
PAN India average number of cars every household has = 0.10
Therefore total cars in India = 1.2 crore
Say out of these total cars in India 10% were sold in 2011 -12
therefore total sales in 2011 -12 = 12 lakh cars
But due to day to day increase in Petrol Prices and High Interest rates say the total number of cars expected to be sold in 2012 - 13 will be less by 5%
Therefore total cars to be sold in 2012 - 13 = 11.4 lakh new cars in all segments
Now Maruti has a market share of close to 40% combining all segments.
Therefore total Maruti cars on road in 2012 -13 will be 40% of 11.4 lakh cars = 4.56 lakh cars
After Alto , Wagon R and Swift Dzire is most sold car by maruti
Dzire = 15% of all maruti sold are Dzire = approx 68 thousand cars
@pawanponting said: Question ) Suppose u have a client and he is in bat making business. He wants to estimate the size of industry or business that he can get.... ? Answer ) To consider this industry following approach comes to my mind: If we talk about PAN India then total population of India is say 120 crore. we will divide India into 4 Zones North = Population of 20 crores say 0.10% plays cricket which includes all type of cricket means pro and for fun and of all age categories. therefore total cricket playing population = 2,00,000 Say on an average every person has .5 bats therefore total bats = 1,00,000East = Population of 40 crores Say 0.05% plays cricket therefore total cricket playing population = 2,00,000 Say on an average every person has .25 bats therefor total bats = 50,000West = Population of 30 crores 0.15% plays cricket therefore total cricket playing population = 4,50,000 Say on an average every person has .5 bats therefore total bats = 2,25,000South = Population of 30 crores 0.10% plays cricket therefore total cricket playing population = 300000 Say on an average every person has .5 bats therefore total bats = 1,50,000total bats to be manufactured in India in 2012 = 5,25,000Say average price of bat in India = Rs. 1500Therefore total Industry = Rs. 787500000
Dude give logic for u takin 0.10% of north india playin cricket, random guessues are a big no no 
@Brooklyn said: A question i had in my job interview:Suppose u have a client and he is in bat making business. He wants to estimate the size of industry or business that he can get....Answere with approach and assume the country to be India
Hi,
It has been assumed that the market is not segmented and has only one type of bat. This can be clarified from the interviewer.
About 50% of the population is below 25 years of age. This is a well known often quoted statement. Therefore, this comes out to be 61 crore. We assume only this population plays cricket. We'll add the professional players and other hobbyists separately.
We assume that 0-6 and 22-25 years of age people don't play any games. This comes out to be 32% of the 61 crore population assuming that population spread is even.
This means that 68% people play games and say 2% in the excluded bracket also play amateur level games. = 70% = 42.7 crore
Now, assume that only 75% of the above people play cricket. This has been done keeping in mind that eastern India is more interested in football and few others might not like the game, too busy studying etc.
10.675 x 3 = 32.025 Cr
Now, only assuming a group of 10, only one bat is required to play. Which means only 10% people need bats. This brings it down to 3.2025 Cr.
Now, only 50% of such people would buy bats from the market. Others probably belong to larger groups, or make bats using a plank of wood, etc.
= 1.60125 Cr
A bat lasts at least for 8 years so, annual sales would come out to be 0.2 Cr = 20 Lakh
These are bats of all sizes and brands and includes semi-professional players.
Now, adding professional players to the list. International Squad probably consists of 50 players at a time. Domestic players are a lot more. If we take 200 players per state, this comes out to be 5600. These professional players are in the bracket 22 and above.
Also, include casual cricket playing population above 25 which is assumed to be: 0.01% which comes out to be 1.2 Lakhs. They buy bats every 15 years as they play less. 1.2 / 15 = 0.08 Lakhs = 8000
All these players buy bats. 20.136 lakh
Assuming Weighted Price Average to be Rs. 600 = 120.816 lakh = 1.2 Crore market
Pls point out mistakes/aberrations if any. I am really bad at these kind of estimates.
It has been assumed that the market is not segmented and has only one type of bat. This can be clarified from the interviewer.
About 50% of the population is below 25 years of age. This is a well known often quoted statement. Therefore, this comes out to be 61 crore. We assume only this population plays cricket. We'll add the professional players and other hobbyists separately.
We assume that 0-6 and 22-25 years of age people don't play any games. This comes out to be 32% of the 61 crore population assuming that population spread is even.
This means that 68% people play games and say 2% in the excluded bracket also play amateur level games. = 70% = 42.7 crore
Now, assume that only 75% of the above people play cricket. This has been done keeping in mind that eastern India is more interested in football and few others might not like the game, too busy studying etc.
10.675 x 3 = 32.025 Cr
Now, only assuming a group of 10, only one bat is required to play. Which means only 10% people need bats. This brings it down to 3.2025 Cr.
Now, only 50% of such people would buy bats from the market. Others probably belong to larger groups, or make bats using a plank of wood, etc.
= 1.60125 Cr
A bat lasts at least for 8 years so, annual sales would come out to be 0.2 Cr = 20 Lakh
These are bats of all sizes and brands and includes semi-professional players.
Now, adding professional players to the list. International Squad probably consists of 50 players at a time. Domestic players are a lot more. If we take 200 players per state, this comes out to be 5600. These professional players are in the bracket 22 and above.
Also, include casual cricket playing population above 25 which is assumed to be: 0.01% which comes out to be 1.2 Lakhs. They buy bats every 15 years as they play less. 1.2 / 15 = 0.08 Lakhs = 8000
All these players buy bats. 20.136 lakh
Assuming Weighted Price Average to be Rs. 600 = 120.816 lakh = 1.2 Crore market
Pls point out mistakes/aberrations if any. I am really bad at these kind of estimates.
@gizmotech said:Hi,It has been assumed that the market is not segmented and has only one type of bat. This can be clarified from the interviewer.About 50% of the population is below 25 years of age. This is a well known often quoted statement. Therefore, this comes out to be 61 crore. We assume only this population plays cricket. We'll add the professional players and other hobbyists separately.We assume that 0-6 and 22-25 years of age people don't play any games. This comes out to be 32% of the 61 crore population assuming that population spread is even.This means that 68% people play games and say 2% in the excluded bracket also play amateur level games. = 70% = 42.7 croreNow, assume that only 75% of the above people play cricket. This has been done keeping in mind that eastern India is more interested in football and few others might not like the game, too busy studying etc.10.675 x 3 = 32.025 CrNow, only assuming a group of 10, only one bat is required to play. Which means only 10% people need bats. This brings it down to 3.2025 Cr.Now, only 50% of such people would buy bats from the market. Others probably belong to larger groups, or make bats using a plank of wood, etc.= 1.60125 CrA bat lasts at least for 8 years so, annual sales would come out to be 0.2 Cr = 20 LakhThese are bats of all sizes and brands and includes semi-professional players.Now, adding professional players to the list. International Squad probably consists of 50 players at a time. Domestic players are a lot more. If we take 200 players per state, this comes out to be 5600. These professional players are in the bracket 22 and above.All these players buy bats. 20.056 lakhAssuming Weighted Price Average to be Rs. 600 = 120. 336 lakh = 1.2 Crore marketPls point out mistakes/aberrations if any. I am really bad at these kind of estimates.
A nice soln bt @ d point where u said 10 ppl using 1 dat point actually gives u a braching off frm where u can say lets 10 per 1 bat or 10 per 10 bats so u can get upper limit n lower limit to ur ans which is better as u get a bracket 😃 interview lyk to c dis @ tyms
@Brooklyn said:A nice soln bt @ d point where u said 10 ppl using 1 dat point actually gives u a braching off frm where u can say lets 10 per 1 bat or 10 per 10 bats so u can get upper limit n lower limit to ur ans which is better as u get a bracket interview lyk to c dis @ tyms
umm..interesting. I keep forgetting this. You have given a very nice suggestion. Whenever one is unsure, one can quote two figures (upper bound and lower bound) to remain safe. Also, use market segmentation often to arrive at a closer answer. But, this was a very broad problem so didn't feel like exploring further :P
@gizmotech said:umm..interesting. I keep forgetting this. You have given a very nice suggestion. Whenever one is unsure, one can quote two figures (upper bound and lower bound) to remain safe. Also, use market segmentation often to arrive at a closer answer. But, this was a very broad problem so didn't feel like exploring further
Yea dis was, even i was stumped ven 1st aked dis q as its too vague to give an ans n hence i gave max min type ans 😁 :D