With the battle almost lost, the UPA government seemed to have played a master stroke; and this in combination with NAMO’s protestations and claims might play spoilers for NDA when the two alliances face each other again in 2019. With the 2014 elections surveys claiming the BJP to sweep over 200 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, the chances of UPA3 seems miniscule; and barring a surprise the BJP seems all set to become the leading party of the Assembly.
The Vote on Account presented by Mr. Chidambaram acknowledges the fact that even UPA have accepted defeat in the coming elections. The budget which was expected to get the masses some sweeteners and freebies did not meet the expectation by any stretch of imagination, and this shows that even Congress is expecting a defeat in the next elections, however after claiming that they have been successful in keeping the deficit under check and by making sure that the fiscal deficit is only 4.6% which is below the projected 4.8% of the GDP, Mr. Chidambaram has pulled a trick out of the hat.
To obtain this figure of 4.6 when the projected rate was 4.8 is nothing short of a miracle (considering the existing financial condition ); but if we look at things from close quarters, we will realize that it is misleading. The deficit has been kept under limit by procrastinating the expenditure on the subsidies, which eventually will have to be paid the NDA government if they come to power; and this would push them on the backfoot even before they enter the fray. More important than keeping the rates under check is how has the target been achieved; as cutting down on the growth conducive factors might be counterproductive, and this is exactly what the outgoing Finance Minister has done, moreover the ever increasing CAD is doing us no good. Mr. Chidambram has tried to paint the picture rosy but the reality is a far off.
The reduction in the excise duty has come as a welcome step and it bodes well for the manufacturing sector however the incoming government will be overburdened by the rollover subsidies (which the current FM has deferred). The introduction of bills such as the “one rank one pension” bill and the “food security bill” will add to the miseries and make life difficult for the next FM. Mr. Chidambaram has manipulated well to save India from the JUNK STATUS but things do not appear bright at the other side of the tunnel.
Mr. Modi is all set to win the upcoming battle of the lower house but keeping the finance ministry stable under his tenure would be nothing short of a war for him. His problems will be aggravated by the fact that NDA do not have an able finance minister waiting in the wings. With the likes of Jaswant Singh and Yashwant Sinha who are already past their primes and have been out of action for quite some time now, it will be interesting to see who NAMO confides in to become the next FM.
The next five years will be very crucial for India, and with the growth outlook not looking optimistic, Mr. Modi will do himself a huge favor if he is able to replicate Gujarat on a large scale. This will not be easy, especially with the greasy surface that he has been given to walk on but if he manages to meet his proclamations, he would have done enough to keep INC away from the power at least for a decade.
India has long walked the crawling turtle way, now is the time to become the crouching tiger; and hopefully the next government will be able to provide the much needed impetus.