All through this week, Al-Qaeda has hogged front page space across media, world over. With Osama Bin Laden’s death ‘what now’ is the question on most people’s minds. A recent research by a business student at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, US, along with an expert on terrorism on the internal workings of the Al-Qaeda, partly answers this question.
Gregory Keeney, a student in the Master of Management Studies at Fuqua School of Business, and Detlof von Winterfeldt, former director at Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events and current director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis have studied writings and verbal statements of Al-Qaeda’s members and spiritual leaders, from 1998 to 2008. Their findings have been included in “Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists,” published in the December 2010 issue of Risk Analysis, a journal from the Society for Risk Analysis.
Below are some excerpts of the study in a question and answer format.
Why this topic for research?
The risk of terrorism is of great concern to many countries and significant resources are spent to counter this threat. A better understanding of the motivation of terrorists and their reasons for selecting certain modes and targets of attack can help improve the decisions to allocate resources in the fight against terrorism. The fundamental question addressed is: What do terrorists want? We take the view that terrorists preferences for actions are based on their values and beliefs. An important missing piece in our knowledge of terrorists preferences is an understanding of their values. To illustrate the approach, we extracted the values of Al-Qaeda and structured them in terms of strategic, fundamental, and means objectives.
Did the US government support this research?
This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE). However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this research are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
What was the methodology used to identify Al-Qaeeda’s objectives and how do you connect them to business studies?
To identify and structure Al-Qaedas objectives, we used decision analysis tools. In typical decision analysis, objectives are elicited in interviews with decision makers and stakeholders. Since this is obviously not possible in this case, we developed a novel approach to identify and structure Al-Qaedas objectives from their members writings, internet postings, and from the academic literature. There are different types of objectives: means objectives (guiding short-term, day-to-day actions); fundamental objectives (guiding medium- to long-term actions); and strategic objectives (guiding all decisions leading to end goals).
What/who were your sources for information ?
We relied on books and the internet as our sources. For the internet sources, we used a bookmark tagging system called del.ici.ous to systematically categorise news articles and video clips about Al-Qaeda. As a result of this process, we used 82 tags, and the program ranked the popularity of these tags. The most popular tags concerned top Al-Qaeda leaders, field of operations, speeches, and tactics. Sources were almost always identified with multiple tags. This facilitated using our information base to indicate which direction the most recent Al-Qaeda messages seemed to be leaning. This method enabled us to remain current and organised with regards to the most recent information available, providing insights into the organisations thinking. Specific internet sources that we found to be helpful include: Al-Jazeera News, Janes Information Group, PBS, Liveleak.com, The Wall Street Journal, Globalsecurity.org, CNN.com, Foxnews.com, and Defenselink.com. Many of these sources provided accurate descriptions of Al-Qaeda actions, attack styles, and target selections.
Did you manage to interview either Al-Qaeda terrorists or those closely connected to them?
While our analysis relied almost entirely on written materials by Al Qaeda members and ideologists, there are of course, alternative and complementary ways of obtaining terrorists objectives. One method is to examine Al-Qaedas actions, including patterns of attack, but also internal movements and organisational changes. This is what economists sometimes call revealed preferences, as opposed to the expressed preference approach used by psychologists, which is based on surveys or written and verbal statements.
Two other methods are to interview scientists who study terrorist groups and their behavior or to interview intelligence analysts who have more specific (though often classified) information about the motivation and intent of terrorists. While we did not interview social scientists, we enhanced some of our own readings of Al-Qaedas publications and statements with summaries and interpretations by social scientists.
So what do you conclude are the objectives of Al-Qaeda?
We identified five strategic objectives of Al- Qaeda .
*Inspire and incite Islamic movements and the Muslim masses of the world to attack the enemies of Islam. Osama Bin Laden(7) believed that Americas actions during the Persian Gulf War were an informal declaration of war on Islam .
*Expel Western powers from the Middle East. Al-Qaeda believes that they will not be free to rule over the Middle East with impunity until it is free from all interference from Western powers.
*Destroy Israel. The destruction of Israel is clearly a strategic objective. Al-Qaeda has kept this goal on the forefront of their statements to maintain the support of the Muslim masses of the world because it is also a means to unite all of the support that they can gather from the ethnically diverse population of Muslims.
*Establish Islamic religious authority in the Middle East (caliphate). Instrumental to the long-term strategy of Al- Qaeda is the establishment of a caliphate, or Islamic religious authority.
*Extend Islamic authority and religion into new areas of the world. Building on the momentum of their expected victories in Iraq and in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda believes that it is critical to support struggles in other regions and spread their faith to non-believers.
What path has Al-Qaeda chosen to grow?
It believes in maintaining status as the primary Middle Eastern force to be reckoned with. Al-Qaeda intends to dominate the stage of terrorism as both the most powerful and most influential Islamic terrorist organisation. In order to keep this position, it must be viewed by Western powers and the Muslim masses as a powerful threat to the West. Successfully orchestrating attacks on US and European soil is an effective means to accomplish this objective.We know from the various attacks that have been prevented that the threat is real. The intentions of the organisation are deliberate to maintain their front as a formidable enemy to the West. A good example of this is the planned attack on Frankfurt, Germany that was prevented in September 2007.
Has US seriously thwarted the growth of Al-Qaeda?
The United States and its allies have effectively limited the progress and impact of Al-Qaeda recruitment and training in their traditional format. This directly influences the number of trained terrorists who have attend training camps prior to their actions of jihad. US efforts have also significantly prevented funds and weapons from reaching various cells within terrorist organisations. As a result, the strategy of Al- Qaeda has changed to focus more on recruiting members from within enemy countries with hopes of having them take the initiative to form cells and execute attacks independent of traditional line leadership direction. These home grown cells would answer to no one in particular, and may never meet any Al- Qaeda operatives. However, they would be drawn to the ideology projected across the globe by Al- Qaeda on various internet sites. Terrorist attacks by home grown cells include the July 7, 2005 London bombing and the March 11, 2004 Madrid bombing .
But is the anti-US stand in the Al-Qaeda as clear as it is made out to be within the outfit?
Attacking US targets is a fundamental objective of Al-Qaeda as it helps maintain the credibility of the organisation while contributing to all of the fundamental objectives related to growth. It keeps American citizens and the American government concerned about the organisations capabilities. In the eyes of the Al-Qaeda strategists, this could help prompt a withdrawal from Middle Eastern affairs. Inflicting economic loss and subsequent hardship on the United States is fundamental to Al-Qaeda. As a result of long-term military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States is spending a significant amount of money on a daily basis. Attacking US infrastructure, such as power plants and dams, could inflict significant additional economic damage on the economy, further accomplishing this goal.
Does the Al-Qaeda have a media cell?
Al-Qaeda has an entire media wing called As- Sahab or the cloud that is devoted to producing and distributing information about the organisation, complete with video and audio content of the leaders preaching. As-Sahab issues specially formatted videos from Osama Bin Laden (when he was alive) and Ayman al- Zawahiri that can be downloaded to cell phones. Al-Qaeda has been growing more sophisticated in targeting international audiences and videos are always subtitled in English. Using people already living in enemy countries saves Al-Qaeda money, and allows the organisation to continue operating across the globe in areas where traditional terrorist networks no longer exist. Partly to support these home grown terrorist cells, instructions on tactics and bomb making exist on Al-Qaeda websites.
Does Al-Qaeda use media to sway opinion?
We have found in the research that terrorist operations are planned for maximum media exposure. Unusual targets and mass casualties are ways to generate coverage. But jihadis in Iraq are not content with that approach. For propaganda purposes, they create their own videos of virtually every terrorist attack, often at great risk to themselves and their operations. By filming suicide bombings from a distance, Al-Qaeda supporters have been able to spread their message and encourage followers that they are indeed making progress and winning the war against the infidel. Another reason for choosing to disseminate their own information is because many jihadis believe that even news networks such as Al-Jazeera, which in the United States is widely considered to be pro terrorist, is actually a mouthpiece for the West.
The insurgent forces in Iraq were directed to abstain from slaughtering Americans in gruesome ways because it only alienates moderate Muslims who would otherwise be sympathetic to the goals of Al-Qaeda. The suggestion was to kill captives by bullet to avoid unnecessary rise in support against the Al-Qaeda organisation. Additionally, an ultimate goal for Al-Qaeda is to sway American opinion against the continued war on terror, with the strategic objective of expelling Western powers from the Middle East. If this were to be accomplished, a vital component to ultimately convincing Western governments to pull out of the Middle East would be Western civilian population pressure. The media would be critical in creating the drive for this pressure, specifically if it repeatedly underscored the notion that the pros of remaining in the Middle East and combating terrorism did not outweigh the cons.
What about funding?
Al-Qaeda realises that maintaining support of the Muslim masses and maintaining its position as the formidable threat in the Middle East influences how much money is donated from wealthy supporters and from the masses at large Muslim charities.
What about recruitment?
A successful recruitment campaign is important for any organisation. The Al-Qaeda strategy heavily relies on the internet to acquire new blood for a fighting insurgency and to create home grown terror cells. By taking advantage of low education levels, the organization promises wealth and glory to a family of a martyr, and uses inaccurate interpretations of the Koran to convince followers that they have a duty to become jihadists and fight the infidels. Preventing education in Afghanistan by bombing schools leaves the Koran as the only educator. Keeping Muslims unaware of how little exposure they have to a world full of knowledge makes them easy targets for recruitment. This is quite what they are taught: Praise and blessings upon our Prophet Muhammad, who said: Whoever is killed defending his property is a martyr, whoever is killed defending himself is a martyr, whoever is killed defending his religion is a martyr, and whoever is killed defending his family is a martyr.
Is there an intention in the Al-Qaeda to unite the various Muslim groups across the world?
Establishing a caliphate, or system of religious law across all Islamic countries, is an important strategic objective of to Al-Qaeda. The outfit seeks to promote Muslims of the world to view themselves as one nation destined to unite and resist anti-Islamic aggression. Al-Qaeda also desires to provide maximum control to religious authorities. Combined, these two objectives work together to promote the eventual creation of a caliphate. Al-Qaeda believes that it should rally the masses to put aside their sectarian differences temporarily because the bigger enemy is the infidel. Al- Qaeda leadership believes that it should support a temporary merger, even though most learned Muslims staunchly believe in a great difference between Shia and Sunni belief systems. Al-Qaeda seeks to spread their authority into Iraq (Sunni areas) to fill the power vacuum that will follow the end of the U.S. occupation.
Does Al-Qaeda use the internet as a mode of instruction or communication ?
The internet is a tool that Al-Qaeda is using effectively and creatively. Currently, in part because of allied security efforts and military presence, Al-Qaeda is operating a significant amount of their recruitment and communication efforts via the internet. Video footage of ‘improvised explosive device’ explosions, successful attacks on American troops, and videos of Al- Qaeda leaders all are incorporated into Al-Qaedas internet efforts. Recruiting new insurgents is a top priority for Al-Qaeda, and the internet offers a way to reach a large number of potential followers. By executing a pro-Islamist campaign on the internet, Al- Qaeda seeks to spread its message to civilian Muslims in addition to boost funding for the organisation, and to promote messages mentioned earlier. Providing tutorials and information about bomb-making and fighting tactics shortens the length of the relationship required between a potential home-grown terrorist and a website. If a website immediately provides instructions about possible methods of attack, a radical Muslim in any part of the world could organise a cell or carry out a bombing himself without additional help. This decreases the amount of effort that the Al-Qaeda organization is required to put into any one attack.